{"id":3597,"date":"2024-05-29T16:35:10","date_gmt":"2024-05-29T13:35:10","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/yillik.kizilayakademi.org.tr\/turkiyenin-afetler-tarihinde-bir-milat-olarak-6-subat-depremleri\/"},"modified":"2024-10-23T13:57:41","modified_gmt":"2024-10-23T10:57:41","slug":"a-turning-point-in-turkiyes-seismic-history-the-6-february-earthquakes","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/yillik.kizilayakademi.org.tr\/en\/a-turning-point-in-turkiyes-seismic-history-the-6-february-earthquakes\/","title":{"rendered":"A Turning Point in T\u00fcrkiye’s Seismic History: The 6 February Earthquakes"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

On 6 February 2023, as preparations for the Republic\u2019s centennial anniversary were in the top gear across T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s vast geographical landscape, two successive earthquakes plunged the country into another direction, another air  – an atmosphere where preparations for a landmark centenary celebration was forced to take a back seat in the social, cultural, and or historical consciousness of the people. These earthquakes originated in the districts of Pazarc\u0131k and Elbistan in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s southeastern province of Kahramanmara\u015f. Not only was the entire country shaken to its core, the earthquakes (emanating from the East Anatolian Fault Zone), wrought extensive destruction both in eighteen of T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s own provinces and across the border in Syria; the aftermath of the earthquakes would later go on to have far reaching and enduring repercussions on the nation\u2019s collective psyche. To paint a vivid picture of the scale of devastation would require an animated yet conscious and ethical comparisons with previous earthquakes in T\u00fcrkiye. To that end, in terms of loss of life and property damage; the 2023 T\u00fcrkiye\u2013Syria earthquakes surpass the 1939 Erzincan and 1999 Izmit earthquakes, becoming the most destructive disaster in the Republic\u2019s 100-year history. Given the extensive impact of the earthquakes, conducting thorough assessments either commissioned by government agencies or individual researchers is likely to extend well into the future. In this article, written eleven months after the calamitous event, I will briefly assess, whilst drawing from the latest available data sourced primarily from official channels, how Turkish cities have responded to disasters. Additionally, I will offer my own insights into what measures need to be implemented to mitigate the detrimental effects of earthquake and other catastrophic events threatening T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s wider geographical landscape.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 2023 T\u00fcrkiye -Syria Earthquakes: A Disaster Greater than the 1999 Izmit Earthquake<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

On 6 February 2023, just before the dawn, while many were still fast asleep, an earthquake of Mw7.7 (focal depth = 8.6 km) struck Pazarc\u0131k –a district in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s southeastern province of Kahramanmara\u015f –at 4:17 a.m. local time (UTC+03:00). Nine hours later at 3:24 p.m., a second earthquake of Mw7.6 (focal depth = 7 km) struck the district of Elbistan in the same province of Kahramanmara\u015f. If earthquakes were to speak a language and we were lettered and fluent in that spoken word; perhaps we might have heard it say: \u201cI\u2019m just not done yet,\u201d because three weeks later on 20 February, another earthquake rattled the district of Yaylada\u011f\u0131 in the nearby province of Hatay at 8:04 p.m. These events, collectively referred to as the 2023 T\u00fcrkiye\u2013Syria Earthquakes, are but part of the greater history of seismic activity in T\u00fcrkiye. It is critical to emphasize that out of the 269 earthquakes known to have caused loss of life or property in T\u00fcrkiye since 1900, twenty of these earthquakes registered at magnitudes greater than 7 on the Richter scale. Of these twenty, the three most destructive in terms of fatalities as earlier mentioned are: the 2023 T\u00fcrkiye -Syria earthquakes (50,783 deaths), the 1939 Erzincan earthquake (32,962 deaths), and the 1999 Izmit earthquake (17,479 deaths).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1 shows the three most destructive earthquakes, their magnitudes, and the geographical distributions of their aftershocks until 6 May of the same year. In the wake of the 2023 T\u00fcrkiye -Syria earthquakes, preliminary reports estimating the amount of damage and economic cost of the earthquakes were prepared as expeditiously as possible. This expedited assessment and survey focused solely on the eleven provinces officially declared as disaster zones. However, when updated data revealed that eighteen provinces had in fact suffered damage, it became clear that the figures cited in these preliminary reports had underestimated the extent of the losses incurred. It was due to the updated figures that more provinces were declared disaster zones and thus in a state of emergency. This state of emergency was declared in the provinces of Kahramanmara\u015f, Hatay, Gaziantep, Malatya, Diyarbak\u0131r, Kilis, \u015eanl\u0131urfa, Ad\u0131yaman, Osmaniye, Adana, and Elaz\u0131\u011f after which the provinces of Bing\u00f6l, Kayseri, Mardin, Tunceli, Ni\u011fde, and Batman were added. Utilizing 2022 T\u00dc\u0130K demographic data preliminary reports recorded that 14,013,196 people across eleven provinces were directly affected by the earthquakes, including at least 1,738,035 migrants who were residing in the earthquake zone under temporary protection status at the time of the disaster.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In its March 2023 report, drawing on data from the eleven provinces initially declared disaster zones, T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s Presidency of Strategy and Budget concluded that the earthquake impacted T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s economy in many ways. Prominent among these was (1) the damage to housing which at 54.9% (1,073.9 billion TRY\/56.9 billion USD), comprised the largest proportion of the economic impact incurred by T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s economy, (2) the damage to public infrastructure and service buildings, calculated at 242.5 billion TRY\/12.9 billion USD, and (3) damage to the private sector (excluding housing)  – specifically the manufacturing industry, energy, telecommunications, tourism, the health and education sectors, small businesses, and places of worship  – totaled 222.4 billion TRY\/11.8 billion USD. In terms of the macroeconomic impact of the earthquake, losses sustained by the insurance sector and of lost wages amounts to about 2 trillion TRY\/103.6 billion USD. In lieu of the burden these losses imposed on the economy, the Presidency of Strategy and Budget has stated that the total economic impact could amount to approximately nine percent of the national income for the year 2023.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 1: February 6 and February 20 earthquakes epicenters and aftershocks 5<\/sup> <\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After completing the appeals process in the earthquake-affected provinces, analysis of the damage assessments and population findings revealed that over 190,000 km2 and 18 million inhabitants were affected, with approximately 260,000 structures either severely damaged or destroyed (see Figure 1 and Table 1). In Figure 2, the provinces of Hatay, Kahramanmara\u015f, Malatya, and Ad\u0131yaman suffered the greatest amount of structural damage. To ascertain the estimated amount of people impacted by the earthquake  – on the one hand, an address-based population data for eighteen provinces from 2022 were used. On the second hand, 2023 population data published on 6 February 2024 (exactly one year after the initial earthquakes) provided insight into the number of individuals who had died or were displaced. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Table 1: Affected Population (2022 and 2023) and Structural Damage by Province<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2 : Number of damaged structures in earthquake-affected provinces (total number of collapsed, urgently demolished, and heavily damaged structures<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Figure 2 illustrates the number of damaged buildings and independent units in the eighteen provinces affected by the earthquakes, as documented in the damage assessment studies conducted by T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s Ministry of Environment, Urbanization, and Climate Change. Considering, however, that many structures also sustained light or moderate damage (see Table 1), the total number of structures affected is indeed higher than what is shown in Figure 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"<\/a><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Figure 3: Number of Damaged Structures and Individual Units in the 18 Earthquake-Affected Provinces<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

At the risk of continuously rehashing the documented impact of the earthquake, it is important to reecho that it affected a considerably large geographical area. Geologists offered a persuasive explanation as to why this was the case. They acknowledge that the occurrence of earthquakes in the same region within a nine-hour interval contributed to the disaster\u2019s magnitude. In the same breath, they pointed out that certain maximum acceleration values recorded in the area exceeded those projected in T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s seismic hazard map. Besides the lapses in projections, the civil engineers noted that non-compliance to prevailing building codes was largely responsible for the severe damage incurred.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In other words, the extensive destruction wrought by these earthquakes revealed two crucial truths that would have otherwise gone overlooked. Firstly, it dispelled T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s presumption that, despite numerous legal and administrative reforms enacted in the aftermath of the 1999 earthquake, the country was adequately prepared to deal with seismic disasters. Secondly, it demonstrated the country\u2019s failure to capitalize on the lessons learned over the past twenty-five years and synthesize them into robust policy and comprehensive governance. In fact, it would be no be out of place to assert that such a catastrophic event with regional ramifications of such great magnitude was foreseeable prior to the 6 February earthquakes. This sentiment is evidence-based as research had suggested, based on historical data, that the presence of a seismic gap along the Eastern Anatolian Fault indicates the elevated possibility of a major earthquake in the near future. Consequently, Kahramanmara\u015f was designated as the pilot province to implement the Provincial Risk Reduction Plan (\u0130l Afet Risk Azaltma Plan\u0131 [henceforth IRAP]) initiated in 2019, thereby leading to the first IRAP being developed in this province. Despite the implementation of IRAP, no one anticipated a scenario wherein eighteen provinces would simultaneously be brought to their knees by a disaster of such magnitude. Not only did transportation, electrical, and natural gas infrastructure suffer a complete collapse, facilities critical in facilitating emergency responses, such as hospitals and airports, were rendered largely unusable. The sheer scale of destruction and the severity of the calamity left even T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s Disaster Response Plan (T\u00fcrkiye Afet M\u00fcdahale Plan\u0131 [henceforth TAMP]), revised in 2022, completely null and void, as it relied on emergency intervention by neighboring provinces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is more is that the earthquakes of 6 February revealed T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s responsiveness and capacity to promptly execute essential operations within the first seventy-two hours of a disaster to be inadequate, especially when coupled with inclement weather conditions and wide scale logistical collapse. These shortcomings adversely impacted the functionality of vital infrastructure, such as airports, intercity thoroughfares, and energy distribution networks. In light of the catastrophe that unfolded before the eyes of an entire nation, several recommendations can be made to minimize the loss of life and property when a future earthquake inevitably strikes: Plans to deal with worst-case scenarios need to be formulated for at the regional level; provinces outside the same fault zone, as opposed to neighboring provinces, should be selected to help provide material support and spearhead relief efforts in the event of a major earthquake; alternative transportation routes that factor in the influence of climatic conditions to allow for unfettered access to disaster-stricken areas need to be identified; and, most importantly, comprehensive preemptive studies and infrastructural projects need to be completed before earthquakes even strike. The events of 6 February and their aftermath offer invaluable lessons whilst sounding the alarm that a similar cataclysmic episode could occur should a major earthquake strike in or around the Sea of Marmara, thus providing an impetus to hasten the implementation of the above recommendations. Immediate revision and updating of IRAPs and, more importantly, TAMP are imperative to address the vulnerabilities exposed by the 6 February earthquakes. Therefore, urban  areas at heightened risk of damage must likewise prioritize the implementation of risk-mitigation measures and establish robust budgetary and disciplinary mechanisms to ensure the adherence to and enforcement of these measures.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In drawing the curtains, it has to be noted that the creation of more resilient living spaces and the fostering of more resilient communities in cities that have suffered substantial damage from earthquakes should be of topmost priority for professionals engaged in disaster management. As a result, addressing a  host of preemptive challenges that might arise in the wake of a disaster is essential for effective post-disaster urban planning. These include minimizing problems prevalent in temporary shelters, designing sustainable living environments in areas currently under construction, prioritizing the restoration of previous social ties in heavily damaged historic districts, improving connectivity between old and new urban areas with reliable public transportation services, and seamlessly integrating work and residential spaces.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

1 <\/strong> AFAD (Afet ve Acil Durum Y\u00f6netimi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131) taraf\u0131ndan a\u00e7\u0131klanan verilere g\u00f6re, 6 \u015eubat 2023 tarihinde yerel saat ile 04.17’de ve 13.24’de merkez \u00fcss\u00fc Pazarc\u0131k (Kahramanmara\u015f) ve Elbistan (Kahramanmara\u015f) olan Mw 7.7 (8.6 km derinli\u011finde) ve Mw 7.6 (7.6 km derinli\u011finde) b\u00fcy\u00fckl\u00fc\u011f\u00fcnde iki deprem meydana gelmi\u015ftir. Detayl\u0131 saha \u00e7al\u0131\u015fmalar\u0131 neticesinde, depremlerin sismolojik, geoteknik, yap\u0131sal ve sosyal etkilerini ODT\u00dc DMAM \u00d6n De\u011ferlendirme Raporu<\/em> (22.02.2023) yayg\u0131n etkileri ilk bulgular olarak ortaya koymu\u015ftur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2 <\/strong> Depremin do\u011frudan etkiledi\u011fi a\u00e7\u0131klanan 11 il alfabetik s\u0131rayla \u015f\u00f6yledir; Adana, Ad\u0131yaman, Diyarbak\u0131r, Elaz\u0131\u011f, Gaziantep, Hatay, Kahramanmara\u015f, Kilis, Malatya, Osmaniye,  \u015eanl\u0131urfa.  Ancak  bu  illere  Haziran  2023  itibar\u0131yla  depremlerden etkilenen Batman, Bing\u00f6l, Kayseri, Mardin, Ni\u011fde, Sivas, Tunceli de  eklenerek hasar g\u00f6ren il say\u0131s\u0131 artm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r (AFAD, 2023a).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

3  <\/strong>Strateji B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131. (2023, Mart) Kahramanmara\u015f ve Hatay Depremleri Raporu <\/em>(https:\/\/www.sbb.gov.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023-Kahramanmaras-ve-Hatay-Depremleri-Raporu.pdf )<\/p>\n\n\n\n

4  <\/strong>Strateji B\u00fct\u00e7e Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131. (2023, Mart) Kahramanmara\u015fveHatayDepremleriRaporu <\/em>(https:\/\/www.sbb.gov.tr\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/03\/2023-Kahramanmaras- ve-Hatay-Depremleri-Raporu.pdf )<\/p>\n\n\n\n

5  <\/strong>AFAD (2023a). 0<\/em>6 <\/em>\u015e<\/em>uba<\/em>t <\/em>202<\/em>3 <\/em>P<\/em>az<\/em>a<\/em>r<\/em>c<\/em>\u0131<\/em>k<\/em>-El<\/em>bi<\/em>sta<\/em>n <\/em>K<\/em>ah<\/em>r<\/em>amanma<\/em>r<\/em>a<\/em>\u015f<\/em>(<\/em>M<\/em>w<\/em>:<\/em>7.<\/em>7<\/em>\u2013<\/em>M<\/em>w<\/em>:<\/em>7.6) <\/em>D<\/em>ep<\/em>r<\/em>e<\/em>m<\/em>ler<\/em>i <\/em>R<\/em>apo<\/em>ru<\/em>, Deprem Dairesi Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131  https:\/\/deprem.afad.gov.tr\/assets\/pdf\/Kahramanmara%C5%9F%20Depremi%20%20Raporu_02.06.2023.pdf<\/p>\n\n\n\n

6  <\/strong>\u00c7SB (2023), 1939 Erzincan Depremi, https:\/\/erzincan.csb.gov.tr\/1939-erzincan-depremi-haber-16203<\/p>\n\n\n\n

7  <\/strong>\u00d6zmen, B., (2000). 17 A\u011fustos 1999 \u0130zmit K\u00f6rfezi Depreminin Hasar Durumu (Rakamsal Verilerle), T\u00fcrkiye Deprem Vakf\u0131, https:\/\/deprem.gazi.edu.tr\/posts\/download?id=43388<\/p>\n\n\n\n

8  <\/strong>Genel Hayata Etkili Afet B\u00f6lgesi \u0130lan\u0131<\/em>. https:\/\/www.afad.gov.tr\/genel-hayata-etkili-afet-bolgesi-hk<\/p>\n\n\n\n

9  <\/strong>T\u00dc\u0130K. (2022). A<\/em>dr<\/em>ese <\/em>Dayal<\/em>\u0131 <\/em>N<\/em>\u00fcfus <\/em>S<\/em>a<\/em>y<\/em>\u0131m<\/em>\u0131<\/em>, https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=49685<\/p>\n\n\n\n

10 <\/strong> T\u00dc\u0130K. (2023). A<\/em>dr<\/em>ese <\/em>Dayal<\/em>\u0131 <\/em>N<\/em>\u00fcfus <\/em>S<\/em>a<\/em>y<\/em>\u0131m<\/em>\u0131<\/em>, https:\/\/data.tuik.gov.tr\/Bulten\/Index?p=Adrese-Dayali-Nufus-Kayit-Sistemi-Sonuclari-2023-49684<\/p>\n\n\n\n

11  <\/strong>AFAD. (2023b, Temmuz 31). AFAD Afet Y\u00f6netim Merkezi Daire Ba\u015fkanl\u0131\u011f\u0131, G\u00fcncel Resm\u00ee Veri, Ankara.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

12  <\/strong>NURLU,  M. (2019). \u2018Earthquake  Activity  in  Turkey  and  Earthquake  Risk Reduction Studies\u2019 The Asian Conference on Disaster Reduction (ACDR 2019) organized by the Government of Turkey, the Government of Japan and Asian Disaster Reduction Center (ADRC), 25-27 November 2019, Ankara, Retrieved August 12, 2023, from https:\/\/www.adrc.asia\/acdr\/2019\/documents\/S2-02_ DeptEQ_AFAD.pdf.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

1<\/strong>3  <\/strong>\u015eENOL BALABAN, M. (2019). Afete diren\u00e7li yerle\u015fimler olu\u015fturmak: Afet risklerini azaltma plan\u0131. Bili<\/em>m <\/em>v<\/em>e <\/em>\u00dc<\/em>to<\/em>p<\/em>y<\/em>a<\/em>, cilt.25, sa.305, 29-34. https:\/\/bilimveutopya.com.tr\/afete-direncli-yerlesimler-olusturmak-afet-risklerini-azaltma-plani<\/p>\n\n\n\n

14  <\/strong>DMAM. (2023). https:\/\/eerc.metu.edu.tr\/tr\/system\/files\/documents\/DMAM_2023_ Kahramanmaras-Pazarcik_ve_Elbistan_Depremleri_Raporu_TR_final.pdf<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

On 6 February 2023, as preparations for the Republic\u2019s centennial anniversary were in the top gear across T\u00fcrkiye\u2019s vast geographical landscape, two successive earthquakes plunged the country into another direction, another air  – an atmosphere where preparations for a landmark centenary celebration was forced to take a back seat in the social, cultural, and or…<\/p>\n

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